Member-only story
How Much Should We Trust Bitcoin Halving Predictions?
Applying a healthy dose of skepticism to Bitcoin halving price predictions from crypto experts and influencers
The next halving approaches
It’s fast approaching and speculation abounds. As early as May of this year, the next Bitcoin “halving” (i.e. when the block reward for Bitcoin miners is cut in half) will occur.
According to this Bitcoin block reward countdown, there are about 115 days left until the halving, since a halving occurs after every 210,000 blocks are added to the Bitcoin blockchain and there have been approximately 194,000 blocks generated since the last halving event.
The block reward for miners will drop from 12.5 Bitcoins per block generated to 6.25 Bitcoins, representing a decrease in the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin issuance from 3.68 percent to 1.80 percent.
This halving event is particularly important as it is the first time in Bitcoin’s history that the annual inflation rate, or “flow”, will near gold’s inflation rate of about 1.4 percent. Thus, Bitcoin will become one of the very few assets to nearly match gold’s stock-to-flow (SF) ratio.
